More on Mexico: What to watch for

Remember my questions about the Mexico election dispute? (See below: posting of 2006/08/27.) Fred Rosen has given me permission to post his very thoughtful replies. He's a keen observer, and was definitely the right man to ask about these issues.

Hi Geoff,

Good questions; the subject of lots of speculation and few hard answers.

First, lots of panistas and other anti-perredistas, more-or-less sure of their victory have endorsed a recount for the sake of legitimacy. The word is that Fox, for reasons unknown, convinced Calderón not to take that position. Maybe he (and other high-ranking panistas) knew of some fraud (perhaps, as you suggest, by PRI operatives in northern Mexico). Maybe they foresaw AMLO's civil disobedience and welcomed it as a way to marginalize (they thought) AMLO and the PRD. Maybe they think they can coopt the neoliberal wing of the PRI and rule a polarized Mexico more effectively than Fox was able to rule a "consensual" political class that emerged from the "voto útil." I think (thinking as a panista) that was a huge mistake. Combined with the bronca in Oaxaca and the regular drug-cartel shootouts, Mexico may well become ungovernable. Not good for business (though maybe good for the other half of the PAN culture: the Catholic Church).

Second, AMLO's political future is pretty cloudy no matter how this turns out. He is already mistrusted by the loyal cardenistas in the party for being too much of an opportunistic centrist. The street actions may have been directed at those militants who, based on no policy proposals whatsoever but rather on AMLO's willingness to take the struggle to the streets, now accept him as a "moral leader" of sorts. On the other hand, he is now mistrusted by those center-left voters whose votes he got on July 2 but who now may feel that he has auto-demonized himself, much the way he was pictured in the PAN commercials calling him a danger to Mexico. The street actions are mobilizing fewer and fewer people and are alienating a crucial sector of the electorate.

As for the PRD, they just won in Chiapas against a multi-party coalition. As a "collection of tribes" they have a lot more contenders than AMLO, and they (as a party) are not taking the brunt of the blame for the disruptions. PAN so effectively demonized AMLO as a human being that very little of it stuck to the party.

I don't think we know yet how this will all play out for the PRI. They have been marginalized -- for now. They have some pretty savvy operatives (like Elba Esther Gordillo) and could bounce back under new leadership. Most of those operatives are playing a waiting game now to see how they might play their strongest cards in the upcoming legislative season and the Calderón sexenio. My gut feeling, however, is that Elba Esther and the salinista neoliberals will drift into the PAN while the social democratic corporatists will join with their "primos hermanos" in one wing or another of the PRD. We'll see.

un abrazo,
Fred

Mexico: All politics is intra-party

Fred Rosen, based in Mexico City, just sent me his latest column on Andrés Manuel López Amador's (AMLO's) campaign for vote-recount: Everybody’s right and everybody’s wrong (Miami Herald/El Universal, Saturday, August 26, 2006). He argues that "AMLO’s evidence of hands-on, election-day fraud has been weak and, in many cases as deliberately oblivious to the facts as the PAN’s general campaign," but that the campaign run by the apparent victor, Calderón was dirty and possibly unfair -- unless you believe, like U.S.party operatives, that slander is "fair" in politics. And, says Fred, while "public opinion" according to polls doesn't entirely trust López Obrador, it/they (the public) generally think a recount is in order. He concludes, "A certain acceptance of contradictions, a certain being-of-two-minds seems necessary to understand the frequently bizarre, occasionally surreal post-electoral process Mexico is now living through."

I just sent Fred this note, which I share with you:

Well, all your points seem well-argued, but where does that leave us? Or rather, where does it leave the Mexican electorate?

Some questions that I hope to see explored (maybe someone already had and you can point me to the analysis):

(1) If Calderón is truly convinced that he won a majority, why does he not endorse AMLO's demand for a recount? Or more specifically, what would be the political (or other) costs to him of doing so?

As a first guess, I'd think maybe he owes rather specific debts to PRI operatives, who most likely were involved in whatever vote-tampering took place. If he allows them to be embarrassed, they can surely make life very difficult for him (by claiming greater fechorías on the part of the PAN, for example, or by sabotaging a future Calderón government from their seats in Congress). He probably also fears embarrassing copartidarios who may also have been involved.

(2) What political future might AMLO have if he conceded? Probably not much: His heir as gobernador of the D.F. seems better positioned to take the reins of the PRD, don't you think? Or maybe not -- might the PRD split? It's more of a federation of groups than a tightly unified party on the PRI model, was my impression. And that federation could just fall apart into its component pieces (especially since the new Mexico City mayor's bona fides have been questioned by rivals in the PRD, and given obvious though muted friction between AMLO and Cárdenas). If I'm right, then AMLO's insistence on his recount campaign is as much a question of internal PRD politics as of a supposed national interest.

(3) What might be the PRD's prospects if AMLO conceded? Could Calderón reasonably expect to govern if PRD legislators, and the Mexico City government, opposed him fiercely? Is it reasonable to suppose that the PRD as a party might do quite well for itself, and position itself for power in the next sexenio, if AMLO were out of the picture?

That's my guess, but I'm just observing from a distance, and there must be many important issues I haven't considered.

(4) And what does the PRI have to gain or to lose in the outcome of this recount campaign?

In short, what I think would be most useful would be to look at the internal dynamics of the three major parties to clarify why they're doing what they're doing and possible results.

México

Here's me about two weeks ago, looking somber (I was tired), in the garden of Frieda Kahlo's house in Coyoacán in front of the pyramid her on-again, off-again husband Diego Rivera built to place some of his favorite antiquities. Photo by Susana. I'll be reporting on our recent Mexico trip in more detail on my Spanish-language blog, Lecturas y Lectores. Here, I just want to say that we had a wonderfully productive time, thanks mostly to the hospitality and generosity of many Mexicans. We visited many architectural sites that we plan to discuss in our coming book, Architecture and Urbanism in Latin America (W. W. Norton, probably 2007), spent a highly productive couple of days in the Archivo General de la Nación (examining the voluminous files of Carlos Lazo, who oversaw the building of the Ciudad Universitaria and other things in the 1950s), and nearly a week in the XI Seminario de Arquitectura Latinoamericana, which took place this year in the state-operated resort of Oaxtepec, in the hills south of Mexico City.

Travel tip: For a very economical, friendly and centrally-located place to stay, try the Casa de los Amigos, run by English-speaking Quakers, right near the Metro stop "Revolución" and easy walking distance from the Alameda, Palacio de Bellas Artes, etc. They have several simple rooms, some with bath, and -- real luxury -- a single apartment (el departamento) with kitchen, bath and separate sleeping and sitting areas, currently for just 320 pesos a night (less than US$30). Because of the kitchen, we were saving money even though we were paying about 60 pesos more than in our first, kitchenless and bathless, room. The young volunteers running the place are really sweet and thoughtful. Saludos a Sol, Nick, Lis, John, y Reya.

Mexico

Susana & I have just arrived in Mexico, where we will be until September 19 -- mostly in Mexico City, but for a few days at the conference "Seminario de Arquitectura Latinoamericana" in nearby Oaxtepec. Susana's main objective -- besides delivering a paper at the Seminario -- is research on urban developments in the 1940s & 1950s (big things happened during the presidency of Miguel Alemán, 1946-52). I'll focusing on more recent and on-going projects, talking with urbanists and others about efforts to confront Mexico City's big problems by changing the built environment. I'll probably be doing most of my reporting on the Spanish-language blog, but I'll try to share highlights here to. Today we're just getting settled, in the very pleasant, very simple Casa de los Amigos, or "Friends House" (of the Quakers) in the center of the city. Talk to you soon, as things develop.